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Why Is It So Hard To Provide Accurate Estimates?
And how can we developers and creators get better at it?
If there is one thing that we software developers are infamous for, it is our inability to estimate our work accurately.
The problem is so commonplace that many project managers consider it best practice to multiply developer estimates by a factor of two — at least.
Whether you are a software developer or not doesn’t matter; if you have been in the vicinity of a software project, you probably know what I am talking about.
Why has it come to this? Why is the simple question “how long will it take to build this?” so hard to answer?
Apart from the fact that we are trying to predict the future, the answer is that the act of estimating is complex yet deceivingly simple, especially when we bite off more than we can chew.
The larger the task, the more prone we are to be overoptimistic. We overlook potential risks, neglect steps necessary to finish, and ignore delays incurred by others involved in the process.
And — worst of all — we tend to overestimate how much we learn from previous estimates.
